Another T5 Buyer
When you consider that the T5 will be a replacement for a laptop, an MP3 player, and a book reader, it's a good value."
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Okay, get up. I know no one expected me to say that. But while I object to the funeral dirge tone to some of the recent articles on the late, lamented PDA, I can't argue with the facts. The standalone PDA, the digital organizer that we all know and love, doesn't have much of a future.
The PDA is dead. Long live Palm OS.
What do I mean? I mean that the Palm platform isn't about organizers. It was, once, but it's evolving. Let's take a look at the Palm Powered devices of the near-future.
The first "new" form of PDA is the smartphone. These are already on the market, and finally, PalmOne isn't the only company making them. New smartphones from GSPDA (in China) and Samsung will run Cobalt, and feature a pretty damn compelling suite of telephony and data features. Move over, Blackberry, these will be the executive toy-of-choice because they complete the "mobile office." A Blackberry can read attachments, but it can't make changes and send the updated file back out. This "round-tripping" will make the Treo everything the Palm Vx was in its day.
But the Palm market isn't just about smartphones. There's also feature phones. These are the same camera phones that you probably own one of yourself. But in the very near future, they'll sport the same launcher, same date book, same address book that you're used to in a Palm OS handheld. That $100 phone you get when you sign up with a new carrier will have the same elegant user interface and PC-syncable data you'd get in a Zire 31. What it won't have is a touchscreen. Like a Windows Mobile Smartphone, it will be controlled by the directional pad and numeric keypad. For a clue to how this might work, look at the one-handed UI features in the new Treo 650 and Tungsten T5. The feature phones also won't be able to run standard Palm OS applications, but that gives those who need more than the basics the reason to upgrade to a smartphone.
The high-end PDA that I and others like me use will most likely be replaced (in 3-7 years) by the UPC. An Ultraportable Personal Computer is about the size of a large handheld, but features laptop power. Current UPCs, like the Sony VAIO U series and the OQO, cost about $2000 and run Windows XP. I expect that price to come down eventually to the $500-$800 mark, depending on capability. I also expect a lot of these devices to run Palm OS for Linux, which is both cheaper than Windows and better suited for a smaller, pen-based screen. I also expect to see Palm OS for Linux on cheap ($500) 10 inch screen laptops designed for students and others on a tight budget. Palm OS for Linux opens the door to move the Palm Platform into desktop-class, if still mobile, computing.
I also expect to see Palm OS make a strong run into media players. Tapwave is already working on this by partnering with Virgin Music to reposition the Zodiac as less of a gaming console and more of an all-around entertainment console. With access to online music stores and a better interface for syncing and playing music, the Zodiac could carve out a nice chunk of that market even if it doesn't dethrone the iPod. But the bigger market in this space will be video players. Palm OS devices are ideally suited to this, already having access to players that support ASF, MPEG4, divx and other popular video formats. As PalmOne has proven with the T5, even Palm OS Garnet can support non-volatile storage (like hard drives) and it seems a no brainer for someone to make a Palm OS unit with a 30GB hard drive and take on Archos.
Garmin has done a pretty good job so far of using Palm OS to power a GPS handheld. This trend will continue, with the iQue and devices like it getting smaller and more affordable to average consumers. I'll also point out that Garmin tried their hand at a Windows Mobile version of the iQue, which didn't do as well in the marketplace as their Palm OS units. Turns out usability counts.
And that's really what it comes down to. The PDA isn't really dead, it's just evolving into new devices that both do what PDAs do and include new features that wouldn't have been possible or affordable just a few years ago. The Palm OS interface will bring elegant usability to devices that desperately need it (cell phones) and power new devices that challenge the iPod and laptop computers. Even if no one carries a "PDA" in five years, the future for Palm OS has never looked so bright.