More of the Same: Palm's New Models, New OS11 February 2002 Palm has been in the news quite a bit lately. Palm recently unveiled one new device and is close to announcing two more. These are the i705, the m515 and the m130. All are Dragonball-based PalmOS 4.x devices, and at least two of them demonstrate Palm's continuing failure to compete with its own licensees and the Pocket PC. PalmSource (the new official name of Palm's subsidiary responsible for the operating system and licensing) has also unveiled PalmOS 5, the new version of their OS designed to run on ARM-based handhelds comparable to Pocket PCs. The announcement, held at the annual PalmSource developer conference last week, was a bit underwhelming. PalmOS 5 will support many of the innovations PalmOS licensees already offer (320x320 screens, better multimedia), but offers little new. There are some enhancements that will be attractive to enterprise purchasers like greatly enhanced security, but by and large OS 5 looks a lot like OS 4 recompiled for the ARM. Let's take a closer look at the new Palm, Inc. handhelds, then look at the new operating system and what it might mean for the next generation of PalmOS handhelds. The i705, leaked in an FCC filing last summer, is a nice idea already past its prime. This monochrome, low-resolution, always-on wireless device was supposed to be a Blackberry killer, and it could have been, if it were released last fall as originally planned. Unfortunately, February 2002 is too late for this device to make a difference. Yes, it's much better than the aged Palm VIIx (whose wireless network the i705 also uses) but the mobile communication target has moved since the RIM Blackberry pager was the geek toy of choice for those that just had to stay connected on the go. Now the Handspring Treo PDA/phone is almost ready for market, as are GSM/GPRS integrated Pocket PCs from Toshiba, Fujitsu, Compaq and O2 (formerly British Telecom). Since the i705 is a data-only, relatively slow transmission device, positioning it against the Treo and voice/data-capable Pocket PCs, to say nothing of the forthcoming Microsoft Smartphone 2002 devices, is the equivalent of Palm bringing a knife to a gunfight. It's just too little, too late. The Palm m515 is also fatally flawed, but for different reasons. The m515 is basically physically identical to the m505, except that it sports 16MB of RAM and a brighter, but still 160x160, screen. Compared to the Sony Clié T-615, which likely will be priced similarly, and which adds a jog dial and 320x320 screen to the same ultra-slim form factor, the m515 seems lacking. Both models even have the same 16MB of RAM. Honestly, I can't see anyone buying the Palm m515 over the Sony T-615C unless they had a severe problem with Memory Stick over Secure Digital as an expansion card format. But let me tell you why that should be a non-issue. I used to think that expansion card formats mattered. Maybe they still do, for non-memory peripherals like modems. But for memory expansion, just get whichever PDA meets you needs best now and don't worry if its card standard will still be around in three years. By then, you won't be using the cards you have today away. They'll be too small, and they'll be cheap to replace. Memory Stick, Secure Digital, Compact Flash... Each is as good as the next right now, and the 128MB card you buy today won't even be worth the effort to carry around in three years when you can just leave a 5GB card in your device. If the Clié T-615 is that much better than the Palm m515, get it, buy a Memory Stick and get all the use you can out of it before the next thing comes along. Last but not least is the Palm m130. This rumored $280 device is a color version of the m125, featuring the small and light m100 form factor, a Secure Digital card slot, Universal Connector and a lithium battery (pretty much a given on a color device). This could be a winner for Palm. Assuming the screen is reflective and outdoor viewable, but brighter than the screen on the m505, the m130 could be the perfect device for someone that wants a really good PIM/ebook reader, but doesn't want to spend the extra cash for the bells and whistles of the higher end Sony devices or Pocket PCs. The color screen would make Palm Reader Pro and WordSmith look great, and the low price and durability inherent in the m100 series would make a purchase largely free of buyer's remorse. Basically, the m130 could be everything a Palm should be, and nothing it shouldn't. But what of the generation yet to come, devices based on PalmOS 5 and the same ARM processor architecture used by the Pocket PC? The first thing I saw when I looked at the official announcement of PalmOS 5 was, "too little, too late, too bad." According to an interview with PalmSource Chief Competitive Officer Michael Mace on PalmInfocenter, PalmSource is trying to avoid the mistakes of Apple. David Nagel, now PalmSource's CEO, was in charge of Apple during the Copeland project, an ill-fated and ultimately aborted attempt to completely rewrite the Mac OS. When he saw that PalmSource (then just Palm) was planning to do the same thing with PalmOS 5, he but the brakes on it. Rather than chew up resources with a massive ground-up rewrite, which would inevitably meet with a series of delays before anyone saw anything, he favored a staggered approach. PalmOS 5 does have some important changes under the hood (subtle yet important evolutionary changes on par with the differences between Pocket PC 2000 and Pocket PC 2002), but on the surface it really doesn't look like much more than PalmOS 4 recompiled for the ARM. This means a boost in overall speed, but most users won't see even that since they'll be running most of their applications in PalmOS 4/Dragonball emulation mode. Basically, PalmOS 5 looks built for an existing Sony Clié, but an ARM CPU: same 320x320 screen resolution, better multimedia, still no real file system, still no soft input area. PalmSource is sticking to their "keep it simple" mantra, and they don't even seem to realize that for business users, they're not simple anymore. I think something that PalmSource hasn't considered is the difference between task complexity and systemic complexity. For simple things like creating a new contact, or entering a new appointment, yes, the PalmOS way to do things can be significantly quicker and easier than on the Pocket PC. (Although I think this only applies if you're using the PDA much like a paper day planner. If you do extra stuff like add an end time and set an alarm for that appointment, Pocket PC 2002 devices are just as fast as PalmOS devices.) If high-end PalmOS devices like the Sony and HandEra devices (and the as yet unannounced PalmOS 5 devices) can do almost everything Pocket PCs can do, and since they're "easier to use", why not go with them instead of the more complicated Pocket PCs? The answer's in the fine print. The PalmOS devices may have the Pocket PC edged out on task complexity, but they lose big time in systemic complexity. What does this mean? It means that even if the Pocket PC is a little more complex at the task level, the overall system is far easier to use because it functions better as an integrated whole. PalmOS devices quickly devolve into a nightmare of complexity once you move past the basic PIM stuff. Let me give you an example. You're Joe BusinessUser, and you have a relatively common task at hand for business people on the go. Someone has sent you an email with an attached Word document. You have to revise that document and send it on to someone else. How would the two systems handle this? On the Pocket PC, you tap on the Word icon in the email and the document opens in Pocket Word. You edit it, then tap on the Tools menu and tap "Send via E-mail...". An email message pops up with the document attached, and you either write in the email address of the recipient or select it from your address book, then tap Send. Simple, easy and intuitive. On a PalmOS device, you'd have to make sure MultiMail is installed, since the basic Palm Mail application can't handle attachments. Then you'd have to make sure Documents To Go is installed. And you'd have to make sure yet another third party app from yet another software firm is installed to allow MultiMail and Documents To Go to talk to each other, since they don't by default. You'd have to use that program to open the attachment in DTG, then you'd have to save the DTG file somewhere (god help you if you have to use VFS). Then you'd have to use the glue software again to try to attach the DTG file to a new email, which I'm hoping will also handle the conversion back to Word format so your recipient can actually read it. While third party applications do give Palms the ability to tackle many of the same tasks as Pocket PCs, getting a multitude of third party applications from disparate vendors to work together is a task in and of itself, and not an easy one much of the time. This was the biggest reason I switched from my Clié 710 to my Jornada. The Clié could do a lot of what my Pocket PC does, but the Pocket PC is so much easier to deal with. True, for PIM stuff, PalmOS still has a slight edge, and the systemic complexity of PalmOS only rears its ugly head when you try to move beyond that and use the device more as a miniature laptop. However, this advantage of PalmOS's is based on past usage patterns. I believe the PDA market is sagging, that most people who are going to buy a PDA for PIM usage have probably got one by now. The future of the handheld market isn't in the consumer space, it's in enterprise. In today's economy (anyone else miss 1999?), even big companies are still working with tightened belts and are unlikely to buy a $400-600 device each for hundreds of employees just for PIM data. But, if it comes down to spending $3,000 for each member of the sales force for a new laptop and docking station, or $1,500 for a good desktop PC and a PDA that can do most of what road warriors actually use laptops for (email, word processing, web surfing/orders), well, why pay twice as much if you don't have to? PalmSource and Microsoft both know that the money's better selling 1,000 units on one order than trying to sell to 1,000 separate consumers. Both companies are focused on the needs of the enterprise user for their OS/devices. But I think Palm has a much longer way to go before they get it right, and PalmOS will look suspiciously like Pocket PC when and if they do. Right now (and with OS 5), Palm is still focused on selling to people that have already bought, not the wisest of business strategies. So how many more chances do Palm and PalmSource have to get it right? Who (if anyone) is going to come out with a PalmOS-based device that takes the business world by storm? Is it already to late to stop Microsoft from declaring victory? Join the discussion in the Writing On Your Palm Yahoo Group. |